Sunday, August 26, 2012

Deglobalization and the Second Swadeshi Movement

Wikipedia defines "deglobalization" as:
Deglobalization, also deglobalisation (chiefly UK/Ireland), refers to a process of diminishing interdependence and integration between certain units around the world, typically nation-states. It stands in contrast to globalization, in which units become increasingly integrated over time, and generally spans the time between periods of globalization.
If you have noticed recently, several countries are showing signs of protectionism.
In this time of global economic uncertainty, countries are opting to protect several domestic industries from increasing global competition. Several countries have imposed large tariffs on imports and exports and several countries are taking up measures to protect their currencies. This is normal behavior during difficult economic times where countries feel that they will be able to revive local industry by restricting trade. Does it really work? Well, only time will tell. Of course, this is not healthy from a world trade perspective. The sad part is, even countries that are die-hard capitalists and who were screaming for free trade are now growing extremely cautious.

You guys must read this piece of news about how France is getting protectionist about its automobile industry and trying to save the likes of Peugeot from Hyundai and Kia.

I believe this trend will continue for some more time and the world will get increasingly localized.
Without a surprise, India will be part of this too. This kind of reminds me of the Swadeshi Movement we had back during the time of Independence! I had called this the "Swadeshi Movement II" in an earlier email.

Do write in and let me know if you are seeing signs of protectionism and if you think if it is good or bad for the economy.

Oh ... and we have to talk about our favorite ... the Dollar versus Rupee chart!

Yes, as expected, the USDINR chart entered into a horizontal consolidation. Now, it is time for a rather large move. This time however, there is absolutely no sign of whether the Index will move up or down or whether it will continue to move sideways! Many people would expect (and, maybe hope) for the Rupee to strengthen from here. Let us wait and watch!



Till next time, stay calm!

No comments:

Post a Comment